Ocean conditions in the Pacific Ocean are increasingly suggestive of a strong El Niño consequence later this year . While that might seem like sound news to the urine - starve neighborhood of the United States , the lead torrential rainfall could be exceptionally wild .
Back in March of this year , scientists declared that El Niño atmospheric condition had come forth in the Pacific Ocean . ab initio , it was thought that the event was too weak and too late to be of any implication , but conditions have modify over the past several months . According to NASA and other agency , surface water supply are getting warmer in the primal and eastern Pacific , while conditions to the west are make drier and cooler . What ’s more , these conditions have a striking resemblance to the substantial El Niño event of 1997 - 98 .
“ We have not catch a signaling like this in the tropic Pacific since 1997,”notedNASA JPL climate scientist Bill Patzert at NASA ’s Earth Observatory . “ It ’s no sure bet that we will have a strong El Niño , but the signaling is beget potent . What happens in August through October should make or break this event . ”
New NASA images taken by the OSTM / Jason-2 planet show average sea control surface height anomaly since March 2015 . Red argue regions where sea have uprise above sea level — a sign of warming ocean body of water . Sea - surface high have tilt about 50 cm across the Pacific , a strong reading of El Niño ’s forcefulness . To add insult to injury,2015 is poised to be the hottest twelvemonth on record .
Above is a compare of ocean control surface height in the Pacific as measured at the close of July in 1997 and 2015 . NASA explains :
The left - side measurements come from the TOPEX / Poseidon foreign mission , while the right-hand side is from Jason 2 . Comparing the two old age , 1997 seems slightly less acute . But trade winds break up and the eastern Pacific warm dramatically from August through November 1997 , setting the stage for a troubled winter that brought flooding rain and landslip across the West Coast of North and South America .
Indeed , and as noted by Patzert , some hoi polloi in the American west are tout El Niño as “ the expectant wet hope , ” but he warns that the ensuing rains could produce the same “ havoc ” experienced in 1997 . This archivedarticlefrom National Geographic should give you a good idea of what we might gestate — everything from torrential rains and implosion therapy through to thespread of diseasesandsocial unrest .
Traditionally , El Niño touch it visor between December and April , so there ’s still clock time for experimental condition to change . Factors that could work its growing include the “ strong blob ” in the Pacific and faulting in thePacific Decadal Oscillation .
[ NASA Earth Observatory ]
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